How to bet like a pro
Everyone in the betting industry strives to become a better bettor, and ultimately earn bigger profits. To do so, you need to practice and master certain skills.
This post will outline some of these.
In-Depth Self Analysis
Simply keeping track of your wins and losses is not nearly enough to bet at a higher level. To really make the most out of your tracking, you should be probe deeper, and look for certain trends.
For example, a trend you might look for is the odds range where you have the most success. Some bettors tend to place bets on underdogs and win a disproportionate number of bets on these underdogs. Others prefer to back favourites and create a steadier stream of smaller wins. You need to find an odds range you seem to have success in, and make a conscious effort to spot bets that are in that odds range.
Also, discovering trends in fixture timing can be helpful. See if you spot any patterns in success rates during certain times of tournaments. For instance, the team at BetterBets are more cautious when betting on matches during the group stages, and we gradually become more confident and more successful once the playoff matches start. Use information such as this to further refine your betting strategy.
Control your emotions
A previous post went into some detail regarding this. In short, most bettors have an emotional weakness. It may be that they are susceptible to chasing losses or they may place hasty bests due to overconfidence during a long winning streak. Either way, these emotional responses are affecting results.
Develop a hypersensitivity to your emotional weaknesses and consider how they are influencing your betting. Think back to times where emotion influenced the picks you made and think of the profits it has cost you. Once you have done this, it will be much easier to realise what is happening, and to control your instincts before you act.
Bookmakers are counting on you to become victim to the emotions. Use logical calculation instead of emotional reaction to maintain your edge. It is crucial that you identify your emotional weaknesses and do your best to eliminate them from your betting game.
Strategy and consistency
When you first started betting, you may have experimented with a plethora of different strategies such as doing form research, creating statistical systems, following tipsters, or combining several methods. To get serious about betting, you should focus on what has been the most successful method for you.
Never cut corners, and never be in a rush to place a bet just because the odds initially look good to you. It is better to place no bet at all, than to place a bet through a halfhearted, and rushed research process. You must show discipline to go through your full analysis process with each bet. A professional has no time for untested systems and approaches. If you wish to try a new system/strategy, or have an idea for a new edge, run that strategy for an extended period of time with no real bets. After trialing the approach, put it into practice with very small stakes, only then if it continues to prove successful should you fully incorporate it into your overall betting strategy.
Closely manage your money
Successful bettors are successful because they have the ability to find winners and profit from them, and they have sound and consistent staking plans. To take it to the next level and become a professional, you must continue to apply a sound staking plan, and treating your betting and your bankroll as an investment.
If you are wishing to take a ‘wage’ from your betting, you need a bankroll and betting schedule that allows you to do this without eating too much into your betting bankroll itself. For instance, if you wish to take an average of $1,000 per week from your betting, your bankroll, betting schedule, and staking plan needs to be flexible enough to support this. Let’s assume that your average return is 5% profit per bet, to make $52,000 a year, you would need a yearly bet turnover of $1,040,000 (I.e. 5% return on $1,040,000 being $52,000). If you are placing an average of 1,000 bets per year, each bet would then need to be an average of $1,040 to achieve the $1,040,000 in total turnover. For this size of bet, with a recommended betting bankroll of 100 average units, you would need a bankroll of $104,000.
With that calculation, it’s clear to see that a sizeable investment is required. So even if you are showing the ability to make a profit from your betting, to make a living at it, your first priority should be building your bankroll.
Bet with full confidence
When placing bets, you should be aggressive and decisive in highly selective circumstances.
Betting odds are essentially defensive measures employed by bookmakers to protect their commission. Bookmakers are not particularly interested in which side of an event pays out, only that they have created an even amount of action on either side to take their commission no matter the result. The only way they can do this is by moving the price of odds to make it equally appealing to backers of both sides. In this way, the bookmaker is at a disadvantage to the educated punter.
Because the bookmaker has an incentive to create as much action as possible, their line can often inaccurately reflect the real probability of a given outcome. The essence of successful betting is recognising instances of these discrepancies. Bookmakers must offer lines on many different events. Even events where they know they have no advantage. Luckily for us bettors, we can wait on the sidelines for the exact line we want. When you do choose to attack, it will be because you understand your edge fully and know when you are in a position to take full advantage of it. In understanding what the bookmaker’s incentives are, you are able to use their position to your advantage, control your exposure and secure success.